CBO estimates 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown
The Congressional Budget Office on Sept. 30 estimated roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a government shutdown, at an estimated daily compensation cost of about $400 million, based on agencies’ contingency plans and OPM data. The warning came as the House narrowly passed a Trump‑backed short‑term continuing resolution (217–212) to extend funding through Nov. 21 and add about $88 million for member, executive and judicial security, but Senate advancement stalled amid Democratic demands to extend ACA marketplace subsidies and roll back recent Medicaid changes and the need for 60 votes, raising the prospect of a shutdown if lawmakers don’t act by the Sept. 30 deadline.
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🔍 Key Facts
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown, with the daily cost of their compensation about $400 million — based on CBO analysis of agencies' contingency plans and OPM data released Sept. 30, 2025.
- The House passed a short-term continuing resolution (CR) on Sept. 19, 2025, by a 217–212 vote to keep funding at current levels through Nov. 21, 2025, if the Senate concurs; Rep. Jared Golden was the lone House Democrat to support the measure.
- The House CR includes roughly $88 million in added security funding — $30 million for member security routed through the Capitol Police mutual‑aid reimbursement program and $58 million for executive and judicial branch protection — measures advanced in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination.
- The Senate blocked the competing Democratic counter‑CR in a 47–45 party‑line vote and then failed to advance the House GOP CR (vote to advance failed 44–48), leaving the risk of a shutdown unresolved ahead of the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
- The central impasse: Democrats demanded the CR extend expiring enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies and roll back recent Medicaid cuts from the GOP's earlier legislation, while House Republicans insisted on a 'clean' short-term CR without those policy changes.
- Democratic leaders requested a meeting with President Trump to negotiate a funding deal; Trump canceled a planned meeting, publicly urged House Republicans to pass the clean CR and said key payments (military, Social Security) would be 'taken care of' in a shutdown, while the White House offered no immediate response to the meeting request.
- Additional context increasing tensions: the Office of Management and Budget announced it would not spend nearly $5 billion in authorized foreign aid (a proposed 'pocket rescission' that the GAO considers illegal), Democrats argued the House CR does not limit that maneuver, and Sen. Joni Ernst asked the CBO for a broad analysis of shutdown operational and economic impacts.
📍 Contextual Background
- The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 provides that government employees automatically receive back pay after a government shutdown.
- Social Security benefits are funded through mandatory spending, meaning the program's funding is provided without an annual expiration and does not require yearly appropriations to continue benefit payments.
- During a U.S. federal government shutdown, active-duty military personnel and deployed National Guard members must continue to perform their assigned duties but their pay is delayed until the shutdown ends.
- Congress enacted the Pay Our Military Act in 2013 to ensure military pay and allowances continued during a government shutdown.
- Civilian personnel whose work the Department of Defense designates as 'excepted' continue to work during a government shutdown, while other Department of Defense civilian employees are furloughed.
- The Social Security Administration's contingency plans provide that in the event of a lapse in appropriations the agency will follow those plans and beneficiaries would continue receiving Social Security, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.
- The Department of Defense estimated that about 406,000 of its 741,000 civilian employees would be required to work during a government shutdown because their missions are critical and not easily carried out by service members.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
What is Schumer's shutdown endgame?
"The piece examines Chuck Schumer’s strategy after the Senate blocked the House stopgap, weighing whether Democrats can extract policy concessions or risk a shutdown blame game."
📰 Sources (24)
750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown, CBO estimates
New information:
- CBO estimate that roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown.
- CBO estimate that the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.
- The figures are drawn from CBO analysis of agencies' latest contingency plans and OPM data, released Sept. 30, 2025.
GOP senator blasts Schumer, Dems as 'forcing' shutdown while demanding price tag report
New information:
- Sen. Joni Ernst sent a letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel requesting a detailed, sweeping analysis of the operational and economic impacts of a potential partial government shutdown.
- Ernst asked the CBO to quantify effects including back pay for furloughed non‑essential employees, military pay, congressional pay, impacts on private businesses (loans/permits/certifications), costs from lapsed procurements/contracts, and potential state vs. federal responsibilities for keeping national parks open.
- Fox cites the CBO's January 2019 shutdown analysis showing roughly $18 billion in delayed federal spending, an $8 billion dip in Q1 GDP that year, and about $3 billion of spending unlikely to be recovered.
Government shutdown odds increase. And, Trump shifts stance on Russia-Ukraine war
New information:
- President Trump canceled a Thursday meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss a funding deal, a move NPR says increases the odds of a shutdown.
- NPR quotes House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries summarizing Democrats' position ('cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save health care').
- NPR reports Republicans pressing for a seven‑week funding bill without attached policy changes and notes Trump’s social‑media post calling Democrats' demands 'unserious.'
Top House Dem fires back at Trump's 'unhinged' shutdown remarks amid collapse of gov funding talks
New information:
- President Trump canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer on funding talks.
- Jeffries called Trump’s remarks 'unhinged' and said Democrats won’t back the GOP bill, arguing it 'guts' health care and pushing for enhanced ACA subsidies.
- Schumer said it was 'tantrum day' for Trump and urged the president to get negotiators in a room to reach a deal.
- Article reiterates the House-passed short-term CR would extend current funding levels to Nov. 21 and warns of a shutdown if the Senate does not act by Sept. 30.
Thune slams Democrats' 'cold-blooded partisan' tactics as funding deadline nears
New information:
- Sen. John Thune says he intends to bring the House-passed GOP CR back to the Senate floor and use the deadline to pressure Democrats.
- Both chambers have left Washington until Sept. 29, leaving only two working days before the Sept. 30 deadline, per the report.
- Fox News reports Speaker Mike Johnson announced the House would not return until after the funding deadline.
- Additional specifics on Democrats’ counterproposal: a permanent extension of ACA premium subsidies, clawbacks of canceled NPR/PBS funding, and repeal of Trump’s recent health-law changes (reversing ~$1T in Medicaid cuts and eliminating a $50B rural hospital fund).
- New on-the-record rhetoric: Thune calls Democrats’ approach a 'cold-blooded partisan' attempt; Sen. Chris Murphy alleges Republicans are planning a shutdown.
Top Democrats ask for a meeting with Trump ahead of government shutdown
New information:
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sent a Saturday letter demanding a meeting with President Trump over the funding impasse.
- Their letter argues GOP leaders have refused bipartisan negotiations and says Republicans would bear responsibility for a shutdown.
- Speaker Mike Johnson said he is open to meeting with top Democrats but claimed 'there isn't much to discuss' and that Democrats would 'own' a shutdown if they oppose the House stopgap.
Democrats demand meeting with Trump as government shutdown looms
New information:
- Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries sent a letter demanding a meeting with President Trump, accusing Republicans of refusing talks at his insistence.
- The White House had no immediate response to the Democrats’ meeting request.
- Trump said Friday there could be “a closed country for a period of time” and that the military and Social Security payments would be 'taken care' of in a shutdown.
- Democrats reiterated their demands to extend enhanced ACA subsidies expiring at year-end and to reverse Medicaid cuts enacted in the GOP’s earlier bill, which Republicans called a nonstarter.
Why a government shutdown looms as Congress splits town
New information:
- OMB Director Russell Vought announced the administration will not spend nearly $5 billion in foreign aid authorized by Congress, asserting a year-end 'pocket rescission.'
- The GAO considers pocket rescissions illegal; Sen. Susan Collins publicly criticized the move.
- Article underscores that Republicans' House CR does not constrain the administration’s rescission maneuver, heightening Democrats’ pressure to resist a 'clean' stopgap.
- House vote dynamics summarized as all but two Republicans supporting and all but one Democrat opposing the CR.
Senate rejects competing bills to fund government, increasing risk of shutdown
New information:
- Identifies Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) as the lone Democrat who voted for the House-passed CR (217–212).
- Adds direct quotes framing party positions: Sen. John Thune calls the Democratic proposal a 'dirty CR'; Sen. Chuck Schumer says public sentiment will favor Democrats and reiterates health care demands.
- Quotes Speaker Mike Johnson placing responsibility on Sen. Schumer and President Trump urging House Republicans to 'UNIFY' and vote yes.
- Notes the ~$88 million in added security funding is included 'in the wake of' Charlie Kirk’s assassination.
Trump-approved plan to avert government shutdown scuttled by Senate
New information:
- Senate vote to advance the House GOP continuing resolution failed 44–48.
- Only one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman, voted with Republicans; GOP Sens. Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski opposed.
- The CR would have funded the government through Nov. 21 and included tens of millions in security funds for lawmakers and the judicial/executive branches.
- Thune and Schumer traded barbs over negotiations, with Schumer saying GOP leaders were not engaging and Thune urging Democrats to 'take yes for an answer.'
Senate Republicans block Democrats' 'filthy' counteroffer as shutdown deadline looms
New information:
- Senate Republicans blocked Senate Democrats’ counter‑CR in a 47–45 party‑line vote.
- Democrats’ CR would have kept government open to Oct. 31, permanently extended ACA premium subsidies, reversed the 'big, beautiful bill' Medicaid cuts, and restored NPR/PBS funding.
- Republicans characterize the House‑passed CR as 'clean' through Nov. 21 but note tens of millions for additional lawmaker security; Democrats oppose being cut out of negotiations.
- Senate set to vote next on the House GOP CR; outcome uncertain as Democrats vow opposition.
- Quotes: Thune called Democrats’ bill 'filthy' and packed with partisan policies; Schumer said he’s ready to negotiate on ACA subsidies and rescissions if GOP engages.
House passes a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown as Senate prospects appear dim
New information:
- AP confirms the House passed the short-term funding bill 217–212 to extend government funding for seven weeks.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote on the House bill alongside a dueling Democratic proposal, with neither expected to advance.
- Trump urged Republicans to 'UNIFY, and VOTE YES!' while Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans would 'own' a shutdown.
WATCH LIVE: Johnson speaks after House passes a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown
New information:
- House approved the CR on a 217–212 vote.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote on the House CR and a Democratic alternative, but neither is expected to reach 60 votes.
- Senate could recess next week for Rosh Hashanah and potentially return Sept. 29, one day before the shutdown deadline.
- Democratic Senate proposal would extend enhanced ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts from the GOP’s earlier 'big' tax-and-spending law.
- Schumer reiterated Democrats would risk a shutdown unless health care is addressed; Jeffries said Republicans will 'own' any shutdown.
- Trump publicly urged House Republicans to unify and vote yes on the CR.
House passes Trump-backed plan to avert government shutdown
New information:
- The House passed the Trump-backed short-term continuing resolution on Sept. 19, 2025.
- The CR keeps funding at current levels through Nov. 21, 2025, avoiding a Sept. 30 shutdown if the Senate concurs.
- It includes $30 million for member security via a Capitol Police mutual-aid fund and $58 million for judicial and executive branch security, honoring a White House request.
- It restores $1 billion to Washington, D.C.’s budget that Congress had previously repealed.
- Democratic leaders threatened opposition over health care subsidy demands; Jeffries criticized the bill while Trump urged GOP unity on Truth Social.
House to vote on bill to fund the government and avoid shutdown
New information:
- House GOP plans a Friday vote on its CR, with Speaker Mike Johnson saying, “I think we have the votes.”
- Majority Leader Steve Scalise said it’s a “distinct possibility” the House could recess through Oct. 1 to pressure the Senate.
- Senate leaders agreed to allow two votes Friday—on the House GOP bill and the Democrats’ alternative—if the House measure passes; both are expected to fall short of 60 votes.
- Security funding in the House GOP bill is detailed as $30 million for member security plus $58 million for executive and judicial protection (total ~$88 million).
- President Trump, returning from Britain, urged House Republicans to unify and pass the bill.
House to vote on stopgap funding bill, but health care fight threatens a shutdown
New information:
- House Republicans set a Friday vote on their stopgap that would fund the government through Nov. 21 and boost money for security for government officials.
- House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats will oppose the bill, framing it as gutting health care and risking ACA subsidies.
- Speaker Mike Johnson said he expects the bill to pass; Rep. Thomas Massie said he thinks it will pass after some horse trading.
- List of GOP members on the fence or voting no expanded to include Reps. Victoria Spartz and Tim Burchett (in addition to Massie, Warren Davidson, Marjorie Taylor Greene).
- Trump explicitly urged Republicans to vote yes in a Truth Social post earlier this week; a few centrist Democrats like Rep. Jared Golden could still support.
- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated Democrats won’t provide the 60 votes needed to advance the House bill.
Democrats release counteroffer to avert shutdown while House advances GOP plan
New information:
- Democrats unveiled a counteroffer CR running through Oct. 31 that would permanently extend enhanced ACA marketplace tax credits and roll back Medicaid cuts from Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”
- The Democratic plan includes more than $320 million for security for lawmakers, the executive branch and the Supreme Court, and restores funding for public radio/TV cut earlier this year.
- House Republicans advanced their CR by passing the rule along party lines on Wednesday, teeing up a final vote.
- Schumer said Democrats have “no red line” and urged Republicans to negotiate; GOP leaders rejected including the ACA subsidy extension in the CR.
- With a 53-seat GOP Senate majority, at least seven Democrats would be needed to reach 60 votes; lawmakers face a time crunch with a Rosh Hashanah recess next week.
House clears path for vote honoring Charlie Kirk, denouncing 'political extremism'
New information:
- The House adopted the rule that also advances the CR, with a House vote expected Friday morning.
- Article reiterates the combined $88 million in added security funding included in the CR.
- Positions the CR as a short-term extension of current funding levels through Nov. 21.
Senate Republicans brand looming crisis a 'Schumer Shutdown' as Democrats dig in
New information:
- Senate Republicans brand the potential lapse a 'Schumer Shutdown' and accuse Democrats of hypocrisy for opposing a 'clean' CR.
- Sen. John Thune says Democrats supported 13 continuing resolutions under Biden, with '96%' voting yes, arguing current opposition stems from animus toward Trump.
- Sen. Chuck Schumer counters that circumstances changed after Republicans passed Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' and foreign-aid clawbacks, and accuses GOP leaders of refusing bipartisan talks.
- Sen. Brian Schatz says Democrats won’t provide votes if Republicans 'go it alone' and suggests progress would require Trump to reverse remarks discouraging bipartisanship.
House plans Thursday vote on government funding bill to extend spending through November
New information:
- House aims to vote Thursday on a 'clean' interim funding bill running through Nov. 27; the vote could slip to Friday.
- House Republicans can lose only two votes if they pass the bill without Democrats; leadership is lobbying the 'usual suspects.'
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats intend to vote against the bill and will caucus Thursday to hold firm.
- Senate timing: If the House passes the bill Thursday, Sen. John Thune can file cloture that day, making Friday the intervening day and enabling a Saturday test vote requiring 60 yeas.
- Scheduling context: A Friday House vote would push the Senate’s first vote to Sunday, conflicting with planned attendance at Charlie Kirk’s funeral; both chambers are slated to recess for Rosh Hashanah next week.
- Government funding remains in place until 11:59:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30.
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