CBO estimates 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown
The Congressional Budget Office estimated roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown, with their compensation totaling about $400 million per day, based on agencies’ contingency plans and OPM data released Sept. 30, 2025. Although the House passed a Trump-backed continuing resolution to extend funding through Nov. 21 that included roughly $88 million in added security funding, the Senate failed to advance competing bills and a partial government shutdown began Oct. 1, forcing essential workers (TSA, air‑traffic controllers) to work with deferred pay while many services—such as routine SSA and FAA operations—are paused; furloughed employees are generally guaranteed retroactive pay once the government reopens.
Public Safety
Economy
Politics
Finance
Government
🔍 Key Facts
- The House passed a short-term continuing resolution on Sept. 19 (217–212) to extend funding through Nov. 21 and to add roughly $88 million for security ($30 million for member security via a Capitol Police mutual‑aid fund and $58 million for executive and judicial protection); the Senate failed to secure the 60 votes needed to advance competing measures and a partial government shutdown began on Oct. 1, 2025.
- The Congressional Budget Office (in an analysis released Sept. 30) estimates roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown and that the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million, based on agencies' contingency plans and OPM data.
- The Office of Management and Budget issued an agency shutdown memo instructing orderly shutdown activities; a 2019 law guarantees furloughed federal employees will receive retroactive pay once operations resume, and the U.S. Postal Service is unaffected because it is funded by revenues rather than annual appropriations.
- Immediate operational impacts reported include disruptions to TSA screening and other airport services, deferred pay for essential air traffic controllers, and risks to military pay; agency‑specific projections include roughly 6,000 Social Security Administration employees furloughed (out of ~52,000) and about 11,300 FAA employees furloughed (out of ~45,000) with FAA rulemaking and routine personnel security background checks paused — NATCA cited 2,350+ aircraft certification/aerospace engineers among those affected.
- The shutdown reflects a partisan standoff: House Republicans pushed a 'clean' stopgap while Democrats demanded that any short-term measure extend enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies expiring at year‑end and roll back recent Medicaid cuts; Democrats offered a counterproposal to Oct. 31 that would permanently extend ACA subsidies, reverse Medicaid changes and restore public media funding, but negotiations collapsed amid mutual accusations and high-level messaging from President Trump urging Republicans to unify.
- Senate dynamics and timing intensified the impasse: Republicans hold 53 seats but need 60 to advance cloture on CRs, multiple cloture votes failed, and calendar pressure (including Rosh Hashanah recesses and rapid return deadlines) reduced available negotiating days, fueling partisan blame and urgent maneuvering.
- The broader fiscal backdrop heightened stakes: the administration signaled plans not to spend nearly $5 billion in some foreign aid via a 'pocket rescission' (which the GAO has deemed unlawful), commentators pointed to prior shutdown costs (the 2018–2019 lapse reduced Q1 GDP and delayed billions in federal spending), and lawmakers sought CBO analysis of shutdown economic and operational impacts ahead of the lapse.
📍 Contextual Background
- A Social Security Administration contingency plan published on Sept. 24 indicated that about 45,000 SSA employees (roughly 90% of the agency's workforce) would remain on the job during a government shutdown, while roughly 6,200 employees would be furloughed.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (2)
What is Schumer's shutdown endgame?
"The piece examines Chuck Schumer’s strategy after the Senate blocked the House stopgap, weighing whether Democrats can extract policy concessions or risk a shutdown blame game."
Seventeen thoughts on the government shutdown
"The Slow Boring piece is an opinion‑driven, pragmatic take on the unfolding government shutdown that analyzes its economic and political costs (citing furlough risks and program interruptions), argues Democrats should defend key priorities (like ACA premium tax credits) and use visible harms as leverage, and offers tactical advice on messaging and strategy rather than pure moralizing."
📰 Sources (30)
Social Security, airports, food stamps: How are you affected during a government shutdown?
New information:
- SSA-specific furlough projection: roughly 6,000 SSA employees expected to be furloughed out of nearly 52,000
- FAA-specific figures: about 11,300 FAA employees furloughed out of nearly 45,000; NATCA cites 2,350+ workers (aircraft certification/aerospace engineers) among those affected
- Concrete operational impacts: SSA day-to-day services (benefit verifications, earnings record corrections, Medicare card replacement) may be disrupted; FAA rulemaking and routine personnel security background investigations will stop; air traffic controllers are essential and will work with deferred pay
When will the government reopen? Here's how long past shutdowns lasted
New information:
- Provides historical context on shutdown lengths, noting 20 funding gaps since 1976 and that the 2018–2019 shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec. 22, 2018–Jan. 25, 2019).
- Cites a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the 2018–2019 shutdown cost about $3 billion in lost GDP.
- Notes Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget data: since 1981 there were 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer and only a handful lasting more than two weeks.
Government shutdown continues as Senate Dems block GOP funding bill for 3rd time
New information:
- Specific Senate roll-call blocking the GOP continuing resolution: 53–45 vote
- Names of three senators who crossed party lines previously (Cortez Masto, Angus King, John Fetterman) and note they did not change position in this vote
- Direct quotes from Schumer and Thune attributing blame and pressing for defections
What happens now that a government shutdown is underway
New information:
- OMB sent a shutdown memo to agencies Tuesday evening instructing orderly shutdown activities (timing detail).
- Article cites a 2019 law that guarantees furloughed federal employees will receive retroactive pay once operations resume.
- Explicit clarification that the U.S. Postal Service is unaffected by the shutdown (funded by revenues, not appropriations).
- Direct quote from President Trump warning of "irreversible" actions that could increase shutdown pain.
Vance says Senate Democrats took government 'hostage' with shutdown
New information:
- Direct quotes and framing from Vice President JD Vance blaming Senate Democrats for 'taking the government hostage' and saying he would meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer only after the shutdown ends.
- Vance's characterization that Democrats shut the government over benefits that 'don't even expire for another few months' and his specific admonition that Democrats should negotiate rather than shut down the government.
- Reiteration of CBO furlough and daily-cost figures in the context of Vance's comments and noting immediate impacts on TSA, air-traffic controllers and military pay.
Partial government shutdown begins as nation faces new period of uncertainty
New information:
- Direct contemporaneous reporting confirming the shutdown has begun (Oct. 1, 2025) and reiterating the ~750,000 furlough estimate in the context of the actual lapse.
- Direct quote from President Donald Trump warning he may take 'irreversible' retaliatory actions.
- Attribution to named budget/think-tank expert (Rachel Snyderman) framing the economic and social costs of a shutdown.
750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown, CBO estimates
New information:
- CBO estimate that roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown.
- CBO estimate that the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.
- The figures are drawn from CBO analysis of agencies' latest contingency plans and OPM data, released Sept. 30, 2025.
GOP senator blasts Schumer, Dems as 'forcing' shutdown while demanding price tag report
New information:
- Sen. Joni Ernst sent a letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel requesting a detailed, sweeping analysis of the operational and economic impacts of a potential partial government shutdown.
- Ernst asked the CBO to quantify effects including back pay for furloughed non‑essential employees, military pay, congressional pay, impacts on private businesses (loans/permits/certifications), costs from lapsed procurements/contracts, and potential state vs. federal responsibilities for keeping national parks open.
- Fox cites the CBO's January 2019 shutdown analysis showing roughly $18 billion in delayed federal spending, an $8 billion dip in Q1 GDP that year, and about $3 billion of spending unlikely to be recovered.
Government shutdown odds increase. And, Trump shifts stance on Russia-Ukraine war
New information:
- President Trump canceled a Thursday meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss a funding deal, a move NPR says increases the odds of a shutdown.
- NPR quotes House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries summarizing Democrats' position ('cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save health care').
- NPR reports Republicans pressing for a seven‑week funding bill without attached policy changes and notes Trump’s social‑media post calling Democrats' demands 'unserious.'
Top House Dem fires back at Trump's 'unhinged' shutdown remarks amid collapse of gov funding talks
New information:
- President Trump canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer on funding talks.
- Jeffries called Trump’s remarks 'unhinged' and said Democrats won’t back the GOP bill, arguing it 'guts' health care and pushing for enhanced ACA subsidies.
- Schumer said it was 'tantrum day' for Trump and urged the president to get negotiators in a room to reach a deal.
- Article reiterates the House-passed short-term CR would extend current funding levels to Nov. 21 and warns of a shutdown if the Senate does not act by Sept. 30.
Thune slams Democrats' 'cold-blooded partisan' tactics as funding deadline nears
New information:
- Sen. John Thune says he intends to bring the House-passed GOP CR back to the Senate floor and use the deadline to pressure Democrats.
- Both chambers have left Washington until Sept. 29, leaving only two working days before the Sept. 30 deadline, per the report.
- Fox News reports Speaker Mike Johnson announced the House would not return until after the funding deadline.
- Additional specifics on Democrats’ counterproposal: a permanent extension of ACA premium subsidies, clawbacks of canceled NPR/PBS funding, and repeal of Trump’s recent health-law changes (reversing ~$1T in Medicaid cuts and eliminating a $50B rural hospital fund).
- New on-the-record rhetoric: Thune calls Democrats’ approach a 'cold-blooded partisan' attempt; Sen. Chris Murphy alleges Republicans are planning a shutdown.
Top Democrats ask for a meeting with Trump ahead of government shutdown
New information:
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sent a Saturday letter demanding a meeting with President Trump over the funding impasse.
- Their letter argues GOP leaders have refused bipartisan negotiations and says Republicans would bear responsibility for a shutdown.
- Speaker Mike Johnson said he is open to meeting with top Democrats but claimed 'there isn't much to discuss' and that Democrats would 'own' a shutdown if they oppose the House stopgap.
Democrats demand meeting with Trump as government shutdown looms
New information:
- Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries sent a letter demanding a meeting with President Trump, accusing Republicans of refusing talks at his insistence.
- The White House had no immediate response to the Democrats’ meeting request.
- Trump said Friday there could be “a closed country for a period of time” and that the military and Social Security payments would be 'taken care' of in a shutdown.
- Democrats reiterated their demands to extend enhanced ACA subsidies expiring at year-end and to reverse Medicaid cuts enacted in the GOP’s earlier bill, which Republicans called a nonstarter.
Why a government shutdown looms as Congress splits town
New information:
- OMB Director Russell Vought announced the administration will not spend nearly $5 billion in foreign aid authorized by Congress, asserting a year-end 'pocket rescission.'
- The GAO considers pocket rescissions illegal; Sen. Susan Collins publicly criticized the move.
- Article underscores that Republicans' House CR does not constrain the administration’s rescission maneuver, heightening Democrats’ pressure to resist a 'clean' stopgap.
- House vote dynamics summarized as all but two Republicans supporting and all but one Democrat opposing the CR.
Senate rejects competing bills to fund government, increasing risk of shutdown
New information:
- Identifies Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) as the lone Democrat who voted for the House-passed CR (217–212).
- Adds direct quotes framing party positions: Sen. John Thune calls the Democratic proposal a 'dirty CR'; Sen. Chuck Schumer says public sentiment will favor Democrats and reiterates health care demands.
- Quotes Speaker Mike Johnson placing responsibility on Sen. Schumer and President Trump urging House Republicans to 'UNIFY' and vote yes.
- Notes the ~$88 million in added security funding is included 'in the wake of' Charlie Kirk’s assassination.
Trump-approved plan to avert government shutdown scuttled by Senate
New information:
- Senate vote to advance the House GOP continuing resolution failed 44–48.
- Only one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman, voted with Republicans; GOP Sens. Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski opposed.
- The CR would have funded the government through Nov. 21 and included tens of millions in security funds for lawmakers and the judicial/executive branches.
- Thune and Schumer traded barbs over negotiations, with Schumer saying GOP leaders were not engaging and Thune urging Democrats to 'take yes for an answer.'
Senate Republicans block Democrats' 'filthy' counteroffer as shutdown deadline looms
New information:
- Senate Republicans blocked Senate Democrats’ counter‑CR in a 47–45 party‑line vote.
- Democrats’ CR would have kept government open to Oct. 31, permanently extended ACA premium subsidies, reversed the 'big, beautiful bill' Medicaid cuts, and restored NPR/PBS funding.
- Republicans characterize the House‑passed CR as 'clean' through Nov. 21 but note tens of millions for additional lawmaker security; Democrats oppose being cut out of negotiations.
- Senate set to vote next on the House GOP CR; outcome uncertain as Democrats vow opposition.
- Quotes: Thune called Democrats’ bill 'filthy' and packed with partisan policies; Schumer said he’s ready to negotiate on ACA subsidies and rescissions if GOP engages.
House passes a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown as Senate prospects appear dim
New information:
- AP confirms the House passed the short-term funding bill 217–212 to extend government funding for seven weeks.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote on the House bill alongside a dueling Democratic proposal, with neither expected to advance.
- Trump urged Republicans to 'UNIFY, and VOTE YES!' while Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Republicans would 'own' a shutdown.
WATCH LIVE: Johnson speaks after House passes a bill to avoid a partial government shutdown
New information:
- House approved the CR on a 217–212 vote.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote on the House CR and a Democratic alternative, but neither is expected to reach 60 votes.
- Senate could recess next week for Rosh Hashanah and potentially return Sept. 29, one day before the shutdown deadline.
- Democratic Senate proposal would extend enhanced ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts from the GOP’s earlier 'big' tax-and-spending law.
- Schumer reiterated Democrats would risk a shutdown unless health care is addressed; Jeffries said Republicans will 'own' any shutdown.
- Trump publicly urged House Republicans to unify and vote yes on the CR.
House passes Trump-backed plan to avert government shutdown
New information:
- The House passed the Trump-backed short-term continuing resolution on Sept. 19, 2025.
- The CR keeps funding at current levels through Nov. 21, 2025, avoiding a Sept. 30 shutdown if the Senate concurs.
- It includes $30 million for member security via a Capitol Police mutual-aid fund and $58 million for judicial and executive branch security, honoring a White House request.
- It restores $1 billion to Washington, D.C.’s budget that Congress had previously repealed.
- Democratic leaders threatened opposition over health care subsidy demands; Jeffries criticized the bill while Trump urged GOP unity on Truth Social.
+ 10 more sources