First missed federal payday as shutdown hits day 10; 600k furloughed, many work without pay
On day 10 of the partial government shutdown, Oct. 10 marked the first missed federal payday: more than 600,000 federal employees were furloughed and roughly three times that number continued working without pay, with active‑duty military pay next at risk. The lapse followed House passage of a GOP short‑term continuing resolution — which included about $88 million in extra security funding — but the Senate twice failed to advance either the House bill or a Democratic counteroffer, as Democrats insisted on extending enhanced ACA subsidies and reversing recent Medicaid changes before providing votes.
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📌 Key Facts
- A partial federal government shutdown began on Oct. 1, 2025 after the Senate failed to advance the House-passed continuing resolution; the House had passed a GOP short-term CR on Sept. 19 (217–212) that would have extended funding through Nov. 21, 2025 but needed 60 votes in the Senate to proceed.
- The House CR included roughly $88 million in additional security funding — $30 million for member security via a Capitol Police mutual‑aid fund and $58 million for judicial/executive branch protection — and restored about $1 billion to the District of Columbia budget.
- Budget and staffing estimates: the Congressional Budget Office projected up to about 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily and that the daily compensation cost of those workers is roughly $400 million; contemporaneous reporting shows more than 600,000 federal workers furloughed and roughly three times that number (about 1.8 million) working without pay.
- Oct. 10, 2025 was the first missed federal civilian payday of the shutdown; active‑duty military pay was reported at risk (with the next military pay date Oct. 15) if the impasse continued.
- Operational impacts and agency specifics: TSA and air‑traffic controllers continue as essential personnel working with deferred pay; FAA faced ~11,300 furloughs and SSA about 6,000 furloughs; NIH said roughly 25% of its staff are essential while extramural grants staff were furloughed and peer‑review and grant processing were halted, disrupting research.
- White House and OMB actions/claims: OMB issued shutdown guidance to agencies; the administration (including OMB Director Russell Vought and President Trump) signaled options such as pocket rescissions and reductions‑in‑force and framed Democrats as responsible for the lapse; Democrats pressed for a meeting with the president and demanded negotiations.
- The core political dispute centers on health care: Democrats demanded extending enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies that expire at year‑end and reversing recent Medicaid cuts from the GOP 'big' law, while House GOP leaders pushed for a 'clean' short‑term CR — negotiations stalled amid Senate dynamics (GOP 53 seats but 60 votes required) and mutual accusations of responsibility for a shutdown.
- Protections and economic context: a 2019 law guarantees furloughed federal employees will receive retroactive pay once operations resume and the U.S. Postal Service is unaffected by the lapse; analysts note past shutdowns have had measurable short‑term economic costs (the 2018–19 shutdown reduced GDP by several billion dollars) and that the current standoff carries added risks because of administration threats to use the shutdown to enact permanent workforce reductions or rescissions.
📚 Contextual Background
- OMB is the abbreviation for the Office of Management and Budget, an office within the executive branch of the United States federal government responsible for assisting the President in preparing the federal budget and supervising its administration in executive agencies.
- Russell Vought served as the Director (chief) of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
📊 Analysis & Commentary (3)
What is Schumer's shutdown endgame?
"The piece examines Chuck Schumer’s strategy after the Senate blocked the House stopgap, weighing whether Democrats can extract policy concessions or risk a shutdown blame game."
Seventeen thoughts on the government shutdown
"The Slow Boring piece is an opinion‑driven, pragmatic take on the unfolding government shutdown that analyzes its economic and political costs (citing furlough risks and program interruptions), argues Democrats should defend key priorities (like ACA premium tax credits) and use visible harms as leverage, and offers tactical advice on messaging and strategy rather than pure moralizing."
Playbook: Shutdown pain points
"A Playbook deep‑dive warning that the partial government shutdown will produce widespread, tangible harms — from furloughed workers and delayed health and nutrition programs to interrupted economic data and national‑security monitoring — and that political brinkmanship plus executive funding holds risk turning temporary pain into lasting policy change."
📰 Sources (39)
Senate leaves Washington as government shutdown nears 3rd week, military pay at risk
New information:
- Confirms the Senate’s weekend adjournment through Tuesday, increasing likelihood that military pay will be missed due to a Monday payroll processing deadline.
- Notes continued background talks but no formal negotiations on ACA subsidies yet.
Shutdown hits government workers already reeling from Trump’s cuts
New information:
- Oct. 10 marked the first missed federal payday of the shutdown, affecting hundreds of thousands of workers.
- More than 600,000 federal workers are furloughed; about triple that number are working without pay, per the report.
- Active-duty military are expected to miss their first paycheck next week absent a deal.
- Sen. Thom Tillis said most constituents “aren’t paying much attention right now,” underscoring limited immediate public salience.
- Article highlights worker fears over threats by President Trump and OMB Director Russell Vought to use the shutdown to lay off workers or deny some back pay.
As U.S. shutdown drags on, ‘it’s just one blow after another’
New information:
- NIH says about 25% of its employees are classified as essential and continue working, largely in intramural programs.
- NIH extramural grants staff are furloughed; peer‑review meetings are on hold per a 1 October NIH notice.
- Reviewers can still upload critiques, and investigators can submit applications, but NIH will not process them during the shutdown.
- On‑the‑ground impacts described: facility managers conducting only time‑sensitive animal/research care; academic labs facing potential funding gaps if review delays persist.
- Article notes some federal scientists face potential layoffs as part of a White House workforce‑reduction push, which labor law experts quoted deem likely illegal.
'Schumer shutdown' already cost taxpayers $1.2B in pay to employees not working
New information:
- Fox cites the same CBO estimate and frames the accumulated payout as roughly $1.2 billion 'as of Friday' (3 days × $400M/day).
- Direct quotes from Sen. Joni Ernst (R‑Iowa) characterizing the funding lapse as 'Schumer’s Shutdown Shenanigans' and calling for the government to reopen.
- Quote from White House spokesman Kush Desai reiterating the administration’s framing: 'Democrats are burning $400 million a day to pay federal workers not to work.'
2 looming deadlines could be key to ending the government shutdown, expert says
New information:
- Identifies the next federal civilian pay date as Oct. 10 and the next military pay date as Oct. 15
- Quotes Heritage Foundation budget expert Richard Stern explaining those dates could accelerate pressure to end the shutdown
- Includes on‑record comments from Rep. Shri Thanedar and reporter Rachel Bade underscoring political fallout and public sentiment
No end in sight for shutdown as Congress leaves for weekend
New information:
- U.S. Senate adjourned for the weekend, extending the shutdown into next week.
- Framing of the standoff: Democrats are holding out for Republicans to make health‑care concessions to their spending bill.
- On-the-ground concern: 'thousands of federal workers' worrying about paychecks and potential mass layoffs (as reported by PBS correspondent Liz Landers).
Shutdowns usually don’t do much economic damage, but there are reasons to worry this time
New information:
- Contextual analysis stressing that shutdowns historically have limited economic damage but that this shutdown is riskier because of explicit White House/OMB threats to permanently eliminate positions (a 'reduction in force').
- Direct on‑the‑record quote attributed to President Trump about laying off federal employees and the partisan framing of that threat.
- Named-commentary from independent economists and market strategists (Ed Yardeni, Scott Helfstein of Global X) framing market complacency and likely recovery dynamics.
How much could a government shutdown cost the economy and taxpayers?
New information:
- Reiterates and frames the CBO furlough/pay estimates alongside the EY‑Parthenon macro estimate, highlighting $400M/day federal pay obligation for furloughed employees
- Links the economic estimates to current White House/OMB actions (project funding freezes and RIF warnings), making a bridge between fiscal estimates and administrative policy responses
Government shutdown live updates as impasse enters second day
New information:
- Senate leadership will not bring votes to the floor again until Friday (Senate observing Yom Kippur), delaying immediate resolution votes.
- President Trump posted on Truth Social urging Republicans to 'clear out dead wood,' framing the shutdown as an opportunity to cut waste.
- OMB Director Russ Vought reportedly told House Republicans that reductions‑in‑force (layoffs) could begin within two days after the shutdown began.
Social Security, airports, food stamps: How are you affected during a government shutdown?
New information:
- SSA-specific furlough projection: roughly 6,000 SSA employees expected to be furloughed out of nearly 52,000
- FAA-specific figures: about 11,300 FAA employees furloughed out of nearly 45,000; NATCA cites 2,350+ workers (aircraft certification/aerospace engineers) among those affected
- Concrete operational impacts: SSA day-to-day services (benefit verifications, earnings record corrections, Medicare card replacement) may be disrupted; FAA rulemaking and routine personnel security background investigations will stop; air traffic controllers are essential and will work with deferred pay
When will the government reopen? Here's how long past shutdowns lasted
New information:
- Provides historical context on shutdown lengths, noting 20 funding gaps since 1976 and that the 2018–2019 shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec. 22, 2018–Jan. 25, 2019).
- Cites a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the 2018–2019 shutdown cost about $3 billion in lost GDP.
- Notes Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget data: since 1981 there were 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer and only a handful lasting more than two weeks.
Government shutdown continues as Senate Dems block GOP funding bill for 3rd time
New information:
- Specific Senate roll-call blocking the GOP continuing resolution: 53–45 vote
- Names of three senators who crossed party lines previously (Cortez Masto, Angus King, John Fetterman) and note they did not change position in this vote
- Direct quotes from Schumer and Thune attributing blame and pressing for defections
What happens now that a government shutdown is underway
New information:
- OMB sent a shutdown memo to agencies Tuesday evening instructing orderly shutdown activities (timing detail).
- Article cites a 2019 law that guarantees furloughed federal employees will receive retroactive pay once operations resume.
- Explicit clarification that the U.S. Postal Service is unaffected by the shutdown (funded by revenues, not appropriations).
- Direct quote from President Trump warning of "irreversible" actions that could increase shutdown pain.
Vance says Senate Democrats took government 'hostage' with shutdown
New information:
- Direct quotes and framing from Vice President JD Vance blaming Senate Democrats for 'taking the government hostage' and saying he would meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer only after the shutdown ends.
- Vance's characterization that Democrats shut the government over benefits that 'don't even expire for another few months' and his specific admonition that Democrats should negotiate rather than shut down the government.
- Reiteration of CBO furlough and daily-cost figures in the context of Vance's comments and noting immediate impacts on TSA, air-traffic controllers and military pay.
Partial government shutdown begins as nation faces new period of uncertainty
New information:
- Direct contemporaneous reporting confirming the shutdown has begun (Oct. 1, 2025) and reiterating the ~750,000 furlough estimate in the context of the actual lapse.
- Direct quote from President Donald Trump warning he may take 'irreversible' retaliatory actions.
- Attribution to named budget/think-tank expert (Rachel Snyderman) framing the economic and social costs of a shutdown.
750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown, CBO estimates
New information:
- CBO estimate that roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown.
- CBO estimate that the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.
- The figures are drawn from CBO analysis of agencies' latest contingency plans and OPM data, released Sept. 30, 2025.
GOP senator blasts Schumer, Dems as 'forcing' shutdown while demanding price tag report
New information:
- Sen. Joni Ernst sent a letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel requesting a detailed, sweeping analysis of the operational and economic impacts of a potential partial government shutdown.
- Ernst asked the CBO to quantify effects including back pay for furloughed non‑essential employees, military pay, congressional pay, impacts on private businesses (loans/permits/certifications), costs from lapsed procurements/contracts, and potential state vs. federal responsibilities for keeping national parks open.
- Fox cites the CBO's January 2019 shutdown analysis showing roughly $18 billion in delayed federal spending, an $8 billion dip in Q1 GDP that year, and about $3 billion of spending unlikely to be recovered.
Government shutdown odds increase. And, Trump shifts stance on Russia-Ukraine war
New information:
- President Trump canceled a Thursday meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss a funding deal, a move NPR says increases the odds of a shutdown.
- NPR quotes House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries summarizing Democrats' position ('cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save health care').
- NPR reports Republicans pressing for a seven‑week funding bill without attached policy changes and notes Trump’s social‑media post calling Democrats' demands 'unserious.'
Top House Dem fires back at Trump's 'unhinged' shutdown remarks amid collapse of gov funding talks
New information:
- President Trump canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer on funding talks.
- Jeffries called Trump’s remarks 'unhinged' and said Democrats won’t back the GOP bill, arguing it 'guts' health care and pushing for enhanced ACA subsidies.
- Schumer said it was 'tantrum day' for Trump and urged the president to get negotiators in a room to reach a deal.
- Article reiterates the House-passed short-term CR would extend current funding levels to Nov. 21 and warns of a shutdown if the Senate does not act by Sept. 30.
Thune slams Democrats' 'cold-blooded partisan' tactics as funding deadline nears
New information:
- Sen. John Thune says he intends to bring the House-passed GOP CR back to the Senate floor and use the deadline to pressure Democrats.
- Both chambers have left Washington until Sept. 29, leaving only two working days before the Sept. 30 deadline, per the report.
- Fox News reports Speaker Mike Johnson announced the House would not return until after the funding deadline.
- Additional specifics on Democrats’ counterproposal: a permanent extension of ACA premium subsidies, clawbacks of canceled NPR/PBS funding, and repeal of Trump’s recent health-law changes (reversing ~$1T in Medicaid cuts and eliminating a $50B rural hospital fund).
- New on-the-record rhetoric: Thune calls Democrats’ approach a 'cold-blooded partisan' attempt; Sen. Chris Murphy alleges Republicans are planning a shutdown.
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