CBO: Up to 750,000 federal workers could be furloughed as shutdown enters second day
As the partial government shutdown entered its second day, the Congressional Budget Office estimated roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day, with about $400 million in federal pay obligations per day. The lapse followed Senate defeats of both the House GOP short‑term continuing resolution — which would have funded government through Nov. 21 and added roughly $88 million for security — and a Democratic counteroffer to extend ACA subsidies and roll back recent Medicaid cuts, leaving partisan blame, OMB contingency warnings and looming federal pay dates to increase pressure for a resolution.
Government
Economy
Finance
Public Safety
Politics
Government/Regulatory
đź“Ś Key Facts
- A partial federal government shutdown began Oct. 1, 2025 after the Senate failed to advance competing continuing resolutions; the House had passed a short-term CR on Sept. 19 to extend funding through Nov. 21.
- The House-passed CR (217–212) was a 'clean' stopgap that would have kept funding at current levels through Nov. 21, added roughly $88 million for security (about $30M for member security via a Capitol Police mutual‑aid fund and ~$58M for executive/judicial protection), and restored $1 billion to Washington, D.C.'s budget; one Democrat (Rep. Jared Golden) joined Republicans in supporting it.
- The political impasse centered on Democrats demanding permanent extensions of enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies and reversal of recent Medicaid cuts (and restoration of public‑broadcast funding), demands Republicans called nonstarter; leaders and the White House traded blame as negotiations stalled and a requested meeting with President Trump was canceled.
- The Congressional Budget Office estimated up to about 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown, with the compensation cost to the government at roughly $400 million per day (CBO analysis of agencies' contingency plans and OPM data released Sept. 30, 2025); news reports noted roughly $1.2 billion in accumulated pay after three days.
- Agency‑level operational impacts were immediate in some places: an estimated ~6,000 Social Security Administration employees could be furloughed (of ~52,000), roughly 11,300 FAA employees could be furloughed (of ~45,000) though air‑traffic controllers remain on duty with deferred pay; the U.S. Postal Service is funded by revenues and is unaffected.
- The administration and OMB moved quickly: OMB sent shutdown guidance to agencies, had earlier flagged a plan to withhold nearly $5 billion in foreign aid as a 'pocket rescission,' and reportedly warned reductions‑in‑force (permanent layoffs) could begin shortly after the shutdown started, heightening concern among federal workers.
- Practical and political pressure points include upcoming federal pay dates (next civilian pay date Oct. 10 and military pay date Oct. 15) and congressional scheduling (religious recesses and adjournments), which advocates and analysts say could accelerate efforts to end the shutdown.
- Context and precedent: analysts point to past shutdowns (including the 35‑day 2018–2019 lapse) showing limited but measurable economic damage—CBO and other studies estimated billions in delayed spending and GDP effects—and some economists warn this shutdown could be riskier because officials are threatening permanent job cuts and other unusual actions.
đź“š Contextual Background
- OMB is the abbreviation for the Office of Management and Budget, an office within the executive branch of the United States federal government responsible for assisting the President in preparing the federal budget and supervising its administration in executive agencies.
- Russell Vought served as the Director (chief) of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
đź“Š Analysis & Commentary (3)
What is Schumer's shutdown endgame?
"The piece examines Chuck Schumer’s strategy after the Senate blocked the House stopgap, weighing whether Democrats can extract policy concessions or risk a shutdown blame game."
Seventeen thoughts on the government shutdown
"The Slow Boring piece is an opinion‑driven, pragmatic take on the unfolding government shutdown that analyzes its economic and political costs (citing furlough risks and program interruptions), argues Democrats should defend key priorities (like ACA premium tax credits) and use visible harms as leverage, and offers tactical advice on messaging and strategy rather than pure moralizing."
Playbook: Shutdown pain points
"A Playbook deep‑dive warning that the partial government shutdown will produce widespread, tangible harms — from furloughed workers and delayed health and nutrition programs to interrupted economic data and national‑security monitoring — and that political brinkmanship plus executive funding holds risk turning temporary pain into lasting policy change."
đź“° Sources (36)
'Schumer shutdown' already cost taxpayers $1.2B in pay to employees not working
New information:
- Fox cites the same CBO estimate and frames the accumulated payout as roughly $1.2 billion 'as of Friday' (3 days Ă— $400M/day).
- Direct quotes from Sen. Joni Ernst (R‑Iowa) characterizing the funding lapse as 'Schumer’s Shutdown Shenanigans' and calling for the government to reopen.
- Quote from White House spokesman Kush Desai reiterating the administration’s framing: 'Democrats are burning $400 million a day to pay federal workers not to work.'
2 looming deadlines could be key to ending the government shutdown, expert says
New information:
- Identifies the next federal civilian pay date as Oct. 10 and the next military pay date as Oct. 15
- Quotes Heritage Foundation budget expert Richard Stern explaining those dates could accelerate pressure to end the shutdown
- Includes on‑record comments from Rep. Shri Thanedar and reporter Rachel Bade underscoring political fallout and public sentiment
No end in sight for shutdown as Congress leaves for weekend
New information:
- U.S. Senate adjourned for the weekend, extending the shutdown into next week.
- Framing of the standoff: Democrats are holding out for Republicans to make health‑care concessions to their spending bill.
- On-the-ground concern: 'thousands of federal workers' worrying about paychecks and potential mass layoffs (as reported by PBS correspondent Liz Landers).
Shutdowns usually don’t do much economic damage, but there are reasons to worry this time
New information:
- Contextual analysis stressing that shutdowns historically have limited economic damage but that this shutdown is riskier because of explicit White House/OMB threats to permanently eliminate positions (a 'reduction in force').
- Direct on‑the‑record quote attributed to President Trump about laying off federal employees and the partisan framing of that threat.
- Named-commentary from independent economists and market strategists (Ed Yardeni, Scott Helfstein of Global X) framing market complacency and likely recovery dynamics.
How much could a government shutdown cost the economy and taxpayers?
New information:
- Reiterates and frames the CBO furlough/pay estimates alongside the EY‑Parthenon macro estimate, highlighting $400M/day federal pay obligation for furloughed employees
- Links the economic estimates to current White House/OMB actions (project funding freezes and RIF warnings), making a bridge between fiscal estimates and administrative policy responses
Government shutdown live updates as impasse enters second day
New information:
- Senate leadership will not bring votes to the floor again until Friday (Senate observing Yom Kippur), delaying immediate resolution votes.
- President Trump posted on Truth Social urging Republicans to 'clear out dead wood,' framing the shutdown as an opportunity to cut waste.
- OMB Director Russ Vought reportedly told House Republicans that reductions‑in‑force (layoffs) could begin within two days after the shutdown began.
Social Security, airports, food stamps: How are you affected during a government shutdown?
New information:
- SSA-specific furlough projection: roughly 6,000 SSA employees expected to be furloughed out of nearly 52,000
- FAA-specific figures: about 11,300 FAA employees furloughed out of nearly 45,000; NATCA cites 2,350+ workers (aircraft certification/aerospace engineers) among those affected
- Concrete operational impacts: SSA day-to-day services (benefit verifications, earnings record corrections, Medicare card replacement) may be disrupted; FAA rulemaking and routine personnel security background investigations will stop; air traffic controllers are essential and will work with deferred pay
When will the government reopen? Here's how long past shutdowns lasted
New information:
- Provides historical context on shutdown lengths, noting 20 funding gaps since 1976 and that the 2018–2019 shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec. 22, 2018–Jan. 25, 2019).
- Cites a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the 2018–2019 shutdown cost about $3 billion in lost GDP.
- Notes Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget data: since 1981 there were 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer and only a handful lasting more than two weeks.
Government shutdown continues as Senate Dems block GOP funding bill for 3rd time
New information:
- Specific Senate roll-call blocking the GOP continuing resolution: 53–45 vote
- Names of three senators who crossed party lines previously (Cortez Masto, Angus King, John Fetterman) and note they did not change position in this vote
- Direct quotes from Schumer and Thune attributing blame and pressing for defections
What happens now that a government shutdown is underway
New information:
- OMB sent a shutdown memo to agencies Tuesday evening instructing orderly shutdown activities (timing detail).
- Article cites a 2019 law that guarantees furloughed federal employees will receive retroactive pay once operations resume.
- Explicit clarification that the U.S. Postal Service is unaffected by the shutdown (funded by revenues, not appropriations).
- Direct quote from President Trump warning of "irreversible" actions that could increase shutdown pain.
Vance says Senate Democrats took government 'hostage' with shutdown
New information:
- Direct quotes and framing from Vice President JD Vance blaming Senate Democrats for 'taking the government hostage' and saying he would meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer only after the shutdown ends.
- Vance's characterization that Democrats shut the government over benefits that 'don't even expire for another few months' and his specific admonition that Democrats should negotiate rather than shut down the government.
- Reiteration of CBO furlough and daily-cost figures in the context of Vance's comments and noting immediate impacts on TSA, air-traffic controllers and military pay.
Partial government shutdown begins as nation faces new period of uncertainty
New information:
- Direct contemporaneous reporting confirming the shutdown has begun (Oct. 1, 2025) and reiterating the ~750,000 furlough estimate in the context of the actual lapse.
- Direct quote from President Donald Trump warning he may take 'irreversible' retaliatory actions.
- Attribution to named budget/think-tank expert (Rachel Snyderman) framing the economic and social costs of a shutdown.
750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily in shutdown, CBO estimates
New information:
- CBO estimate that roughly 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed each day of a shutdown.
- CBO estimate that the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.
- The figures are drawn from CBO analysis of agencies' latest contingency plans and OPM data, released Sept. 30, 2025.
GOP senator blasts Schumer, Dems as 'forcing' shutdown while demanding price tag report
New information:
- Sen. Joni Ernst sent a letter to CBO Director Phillip Swagel requesting a detailed, sweeping analysis of the operational and economic impacts of a potential partial government shutdown.
- Ernst asked the CBO to quantify effects including back pay for furloughed non‑essential employees, military pay, congressional pay, impacts on private businesses (loans/permits/certifications), costs from lapsed procurements/contracts, and potential state vs. federal responsibilities for keeping national parks open.
- Fox cites the CBO's January 2019 shutdown analysis showing roughly $18 billion in delayed federal spending, an $8 billion dip in Q1 GDP that year, and about $3 billion of spending unlikely to be recovered.
Government shutdown odds increase. And, Trump shifts stance on Russia-Ukraine war
New information:
- President Trump canceled a Thursday meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss a funding deal, a move NPR says increases the odds of a shutdown.
- NPR quotes House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries summarizing Democrats' position ('cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save health care').
- NPR reports Republicans pressing for a seven‑week funding bill without attached policy changes and notes Trump’s social‑media post calling Democrats' demands 'unserious.'
Top House Dem fires back at Trump's 'unhinged' shutdown remarks amid collapse of gov funding talks
New information:
- President Trump canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer on funding talks.
- Jeffries called Trump’s remarks 'unhinged' and said Democrats won’t back the GOP bill, arguing it 'guts' health care and pushing for enhanced ACA subsidies.
- Schumer said it was 'tantrum day' for Trump and urged the president to get negotiators in a room to reach a deal.
- Article reiterates the House-passed short-term CR would extend current funding levels to Nov. 21 and warns of a shutdown if the Senate does not act by Sept. 30.
Thune slams Democrats' 'cold-blooded partisan' tactics as funding deadline nears
New information:
- Sen. John Thune says he intends to bring the House-passed GOP CR back to the Senate floor and use the deadline to pressure Democrats.
- Both chambers have left Washington until Sept. 29, leaving only two working days before the Sept. 30 deadline, per the report.
- Fox News reports Speaker Mike Johnson announced the House would not return until after the funding deadline.
- Additional specifics on Democrats’ counterproposal: a permanent extension of ACA premium subsidies, clawbacks of canceled NPR/PBS funding, and repeal of Trump’s recent health-law changes (reversing ~$1T in Medicaid cuts and eliminating a $50B rural hospital fund).
- New on-the-record rhetoric: Thune calls Democrats’ approach a 'cold-blooded partisan' attempt; Sen. Chris Murphy alleges Republicans are planning a shutdown.
Top Democrats ask for a meeting with Trump ahead of government shutdown
New information:
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sent a Saturday letter demanding a meeting with President Trump over the funding impasse.
- Their letter argues GOP leaders have refused bipartisan negotiations and says Republicans would bear responsibility for a shutdown.
- Speaker Mike Johnson said he is open to meeting with top Democrats but claimed 'there isn't much to discuss' and that Democrats would 'own' a shutdown if they oppose the House stopgap.
Democrats demand meeting with Trump as government shutdown looms
New information:
- Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries sent a letter demanding a meeting with President Trump, accusing Republicans of refusing talks at his insistence.
- The White House had no immediate response to the Democrats’ meeting request.
- Trump said Friday there could be “a closed country for a period of time” and that the military and Social Security payments would be 'taken care' of in a shutdown.
- Democrats reiterated their demands to extend enhanced ACA subsidies expiring at year-end and to reverse Medicaid cuts enacted in the GOP’s earlier bill, which Republicans called a nonstarter.
Why a government shutdown looms as Congress splits town
New information:
- OMB Director Russell Vought announced the administration will not spend nearly $5 billion in foreign aid authorized by Congress, asserting a year-end 'pocket rescission.'
- The GAO considers pocket rescissions illegal; Sen. Susan Collins publicly criticized the move.
- Article underscores that Republicans' House CR does not constrain the administration’s rescission maneuver, heightening Democrats’ pressure to resist a 'clean' stopgap.
- House vote dynamics summarized as all but two Republicans supporting and all but one Democrat opposing the CR.
+ 16 more sources