How a government shutdown would affect military pay, Pentagon operations and DoD civilians
The Defense Department has contingency guidance that would prioritize key missions — including border and Middle East operations, missile defense, depot maintenance, shipbuilding and critical munitions — and requires roughly 406,000 of the department’s 741,000 civilian employees to keep working while the remainder could be furloughed and agencies have been told to prepare reduction‑in‑force plans. A bill to guarantee troop and Coast Guard pay during a lapse has been introduced, but timely passage appears unlikely, so pay protections would depend on congressional action.
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🔍 Key Facts
- Federal funding is scheduled to lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1, 2025; congressional leaders and the president held an Oval Office meeting the afternoon of Sept. 29, 2025 as a last-ditch effort to avert a shutdown.
- The House has passed a seven-week short-term continuing resolution, but the Senate (53 GOP seats) would need roughly 60 votes — i.e., support from about seven to eight Democrats — to clear cloture, leaving passage uncertain (with senators such as Rand Paul expected to oppose cloture).
- Democrats are pressing for immediate talks and an extension of ACA premium tax credits (raising urgency because insurers have reportedly priced November increases; Sen. Amy Klobuchar warned of a potential ~75% premium spike effective Nov. 1) and many House Democrats say they are willing to risk a shutdown to preserve leverage on health‑care and related priorities.
- Republicans and the White House insist on a 'clean' short-term extension and accuse Democrats of demanding large new spending; the White House says the president 'wants to keep the government open' but had canceled a prior Sept. 24 meeting, heightening tensions.
- The Office of Management and Budget circulated a memo directing agencies to prepare layoff/reduction‑in‑force plans in the event of a lapse, a step Senate Democrats called intimidating and that has added pressure on negotiations.
- Social Security contingency plans call for payments (Social Security, SSDI and SSI) to continue; about 45,000 SSA employees (≈90% of staff) would work while roughly 6,200 could be furloughed, and some services (benefit verifications, earnings‑record corrections, overpayments processing, Medicare card replacements) could be disrupted — SSI payments are scheduled for Oct. 1 under the normal calendar.
- The Defense Department issued guidance prioritizing missions (including U.S. Southern Border operations, Middle East operations, missile defense, depot maintenance, shipbuilding and critical munitions); about 406,000 of 741,000 DoD civilian employees would be required to work during a lapse. Lawmakers have introduced the 'Pay Our Troops Act of 2026' to guarantee service members' and Coast Guard pay during a shutdown, but its timely passage appears unlikely.
- Frontline travel operations and public services would be affected: more than 58,000 TSA employees and roughly 13,000 air traffic controllers are involved, and while immediate travel disruptions may be limited, multi‑week shutdowns could cause significant airport and national park impacts; past shutdowns have imposed measurable costs (CBO estimated about $3 billion in permanent losses from the 2018 lapse).
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Who’ll Lose When Government Shuts Down?
"Karl Rove argues that a government shutdown is increasingly likely because Senate math and Democratic demands to extend expiring Obamacare subsidies clash with House GOP bills, and President Trump’s cancellation of talks signals reduced chances of compromise — making the political fallout a central question of who will be blamed."
📰 Sources (22)
How would a government shutdown impact the U.S. military?
New information:
- The Defense Department published contingency guidance naming prioritized missions (U.S. Southern Border, Middle East operations, 'Golden Dome' missile defense, depot maintenance, shipbuilding and critical munitions).
- About 406,000 of the department's 741,000 civilian employees would be required to work during a shutdown because their missions are critical.
- Rep. Jen Kiggans introduced the 'Pay Our Troops Act of 2026' to keep service members and Coast Guard paid during a shutdown, but House recess makes timely passage unlikely.
Does Congress get paid during a government shutdown?
New information:
- Explicit confirmation that members of Congress continue to be paid during a shutdown because their pay is funded by a permanent appropriation enacted in 1983.
- Concrete salary figures for members and leaders (most members $174,000; Speaker $223,500; president pro tempore and party leaders $193,400) and the president's $400,000 salary protected by the Constitution.
- Citation of Article I, Section 6 and the 27th Amendment as the legal basis for continued congressional pay.
- Clarification that congressional staffers can be furloughed or unpaid despite offices often keeping staff working, and that each office determines which staff are 'essential.'
How a government shutdown could impact air travel, national parks and more
New information:
- Specific staffing counts for frontline travel operations: 'more than 58,000 TSA employees' and '13,000 air traffic controllers'.
- Operational assessment that immediate travel impact would likely be limited but that multi‑week shutdowns should lead travelers to expect disruptions.
- Explicit linkage of air-travel workforce impacts to potential disruptions at airports and mention of national parks as another area affected.
How would a government shutdown affect Social Security recipients?
New information:
- SSA contingency plan specifics: about 45,000 employees (≈90% of staff) would remain working during a lapse while roughly 6,200 employees would be furloughed.
- Confirmation from an SSA spokesperson that Social Security, SSDI and SSI payments would continue under the contingency plan during a funding lapse.
- Payment timing details: SSI recipients scheduled to receive checks on Oct. 1; regular Social Security payment schedule for Oct. (Oct. 8, 15, 22 by birth‑date).
- Operational services at risk listed (examples: benefit verifications, earnings‑record corrections, overpayments processing, Medicare card replacements).
Dems not budging on government shutdown demands ahead of high-stakes Trump meeting, Jeffries suggests
New information:
- Direct, attributable quotes from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries signaling Democrats 'are not budging' and demanding a written plan to extend ACA premium subsidies.
- Specific vote-level detail: the article says 'All but one House Democrat rejected' the Republican CR on the table.
- Explicit framing that Democrats will not back a 'partisan Republican spending bill' and that the Democratic alternative would make ACA premium-subsidy expansions permanent.
Government shutdown draws closer as congressional leaders head to the White House
New information:
- Direct White House quote from press secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasizing the president 'wants to keep the government open' and framing the meeting as a last chance.
- Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer's on‑the‑record comment on NBC's 'Meet the Press' calling the meeting 'a first step' and demanding serious negotiation.
- Article reiterates that the House has passed a seven‑week continuing resolution and explains the Senate arithmetic (need 60 votes; Rand Paul expected to oppose), and highlights Democrats' leverage to press for extended health‑care benefits.
- Specific framing that Democrats may have to vote against the short‑term measure hours before a shutdown to preserve leverage on health‑care demands.
A history of government shutdowns: 14 times funding has lapsed since 1980
New information:
- A historical timeline of 14 federal funding lapses since 1980, including dates, durations and notable details for each past shutdown
- Background on Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti's 1980–81 legal opinions that changed the federal practice around funding lapses
- A specific historical example: Nov. 20, 1981 shutdown description (Reagan ordered shutdown, ~250,000 federal employees furloughed)
- Reminder/citation that the CBO estimated ~$3 billion in permanent losses from the 2018 shutdown
Government shutdown nears with Trump set to meet congressional leaders
New information:
- White House meeting scheduled around 3 p.m. Monday between Trump, Thune, Schumer, Johnson and Jeffries.
- Specific Senate arithmetic reiterated: GOP controls 53 seats and would need roughly eight Democrats (60 votes) to pass the House continuing resolution.
- Direct quotes from participants in recent media appearances: Thune ('totally up to the Democrats'), Schumer calling the meeting a 'first step', and Sen. Amy Klobuchar urging extension of expiring insurance subsidies.
- CB S reporting confirms OMB memo instructing agencies to consider reduction-in-force notices for unfunded programs in a shutdown.
Reporter's Notebook: Trump holds bipartisan meeting with congressional leaders as Wednesday shutdown looms
New information:
- Specifies meeting time: Monday at 2 p.m. ET.
- Notes Democrats' specific demands in advance: renewal of Obamacare premium‑subsidies and reinstatement of public radio/television funding.
- Explains Senate procedural math: a cloture vote requiring 60 yeas to begin debate on the House‑approved stopgap measure.
- Reports House GOP left town while the Senate remains in session and may re‑vote a failed procedural measure hours before the deadline.
Top Congressional leaders head to White House ahead of shutdown deadline
New information:
- Direct, attributable quotes from Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Meet the Press urging to 'release the hostage' and prioritize keeping the government open.
- Direct, attributable comments from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries emphasizing the need for a 'serious negotiation' rather than a handshake agreement.
- Clear timing reference that funding would lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1, 2025 and that the Oval Office meeting was set for the afternoon of Sept. 29, 2025 ahead of an expected Senate vote on a short-term stopgap.
Speaker Johnson demands Dems follow 'common sense' and not hold American people 'hostage' with shutdown
New information:
- Direct, attributable quotes from Speaker Mike Johnson on CNN explicitly accusing Senate and House Democratic leaders (Schumer and Jeffries) of 'holding the people hostage' over the shutdown standoff.
- Johnson's claim that Democrats are seeking '$1.5 trillion in new spending' as part of demands tied to negotiations.
- Johnson framed the Monday meeting as Trump's effort to 'convince them to follow common sense,' characterizing the White House's intent to 'buy a little time' to finish appropriations.
Shutdown standoff deepens ahead of crucial meeting at the White House
New information:
- Direct on‑camera quotes and positions from Chuck Schumer and John Thune aired on NBC's "Meet the Press" clarifying each party's public stance ahead of the meeting.
- Explicit description that Republicans insist Democrats must first help pass a simple extension by Tuesday night and will not negotiate until the extension is approved.
- Detail that the House‑passed short‑term bill would keep the government open for seven weeks and that Senate Republicans hold 53 seats and face a 60‑vote filibuster threshold, with Sen. Rand Paul expected to vote against cloture.
- Confirmation that the Senate is expected to vote on the House bill Tuesday before the 12:01 a.m. Wednesday shutdown deadline and that Democrats are pressing for immediate health‑care talks as part of any negotiation.
Transcript: Sen. Tim Kaine on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 28, 2025
New information:
- Sen. Tim Kaine quoted saying President Trump 'has agreed to do that tomorrow' to meet congressional leaders and urging the president to negotiate rather than 'threaten' layoffs.
- Kaine framed the White House posture as 'welcoming' a shutdown (attributing reporting to Robert Costa) and urged that a short-term deal not be followed by immediate rescissions.
Transcript: Sen. Amy Klobuchar on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 28, 2025
New information:
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar publicly frames the dispute as an immediate health‑care crisis and urges a deal 'now,' citing an alleged 75% jump in premiums effective Nov. 1.
- Klobuchar says the President canceled a prior meeting last week and stresses Democratic urgency to extend ACA premium tax credits to avoid sharp premium hikes.
- Direct quote from Democratic leadership perspective that insurers have already priced November premium increases, making prompt agreement necessary.
Transcript: Sen. Amy Klobuchar on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 28, 2025
New information:
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar on Sept. 28, 2025 publicly asserted a '75 percent increase in premiums starting November 1' tied to the lapse of ACA premium tax credits.
- Klobuchar urged the President to treat the leaders' meeting as a substantive moment to avert a 'now' health‑care crisis rather than political theater.
- Klobuchar connected the pending premium spike to concrete harms in rural areas and cited a five‑year high in small‑farm bankruptcies as part of a broader economic squeeze.
Trump to meet with congressional leaders ahead of shutdown deadline
New information:
- President Trump will meet Monday with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
- Schumer and Jeffries issued a joint statement confirming Trump "once again agreed to a meeting in the Oval Office."
- CBS reports it obtained the OMB memo instructing agencies to prepare layoff/RIF plans and notes Schumer called Thune Friday urging the meeting; Punchbowl first reported the scheduled meeting.
Schumer, Democrats face heat for shifting stance on government shutdown threat
New information:
- Direct Fox News quotes framing Schumer as calling the OMB memo 'an attempt at intimidation' and quoting John Thune criticizing Senate Democrats for apparent inconsistency with their March stance.
- Reporting emphasizes that Senate Democrats 'appear ready to not provide the needed votes' to avert a partial shutdown, citing recent caucus posture and comments while Congress was away.
Thune says a shutdown can still be avoided if Democrats ‘dial back’ their demands
New information:
- Direct AP interview quotes from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (Sept. 26) saying a shutdown is 'avoidable' but urging Democrats to 'dial back' demands on health-care subsidy extensions and tax‑bill health provisions.
- Thune explicitly lays out a path: urging enough Democrats (he asks rhetorically 'What would eight Democrats be willing to support?') to vote for a stripped-down 'clean' short-term funding bill that has already passed the House for seven weeks.
- Article highlights OMB Director Russ Vought's memo and records Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer calling the memo an 'attempt at intimidation,' and notes Senators Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul opposed preliminary votes.
Inside the political pressure hurtling Democrats towards a government shutdown
New information:
- Multiple House Democrats — both progressive and moderate — told Axios they are unified in openness to allowing a shutdown if President Trump refuses to negotiate.
- Rep. Suhas Subramanyam quoted saying federal contractors and workers urge not to 'capitulate,' signaling grassroots pressure.
- House Democrats scheduled a virtual caucus meeting Friday specifically to discuss the funding deadline and strategy.
- Procedural detail reiterated: Senate consideration of the House stopgap depends on at least seven Senate Democrats siding with Republicans to pass the measure.
Schumer says Trump ‘totally derelict’ for scrapping negotiations to avoid shutdown
New information:
- Direct PBS NewsHour interview with Sen. Chuck Schumer in which he calls President Trump 'totally derelict'.
- Reiterates that President Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders and is quoted calling their negotiating demands 'unserious and ridiculous'.
- Specifies the immediate timeline: the federal government is 'heading towards a shutdown in one week' (as stated in the segment).
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