Government faces midnight shutdown deadline as Senate plans vote on House funding measure
With federal funding set to lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1, Congress faces a midnight shutdown deadline as Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he will bring the House‑passed continuing resolution (which would fund the government through Nov. 21) to a Tuesday vote, though Senate rules mean most spending measures need 60 votes and a White House meeting failed to produce a deal. President Trump has called a shutdown “probably likely” and aides have discussed using executive authority and reduction‑in‑force measures if funding lapses, while Democrats demand extensions of ACA premium tax credits and reversal of recent health‑program cuts; the CBO estimates about 750,000 federal workers could be furloughed and agencies from DHS to parks, air traffic control and FEMA could face major disruptions, with polls showing more Americans blaming Republicans for a potential shutdown.
Federal Budget
Politics
Public Safety
Government
Economy
Public Opinion
🔍 Key Facts
- Congress faces a government funding lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would bring the House‑passed continuing resolution (which would fund the government through Nov. 21) up for a Senate vote on Tuesday.
- A White House meeting on Monday between President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries failed to produce a deal to avert the shutdown.
- Senate passage of most funding measures effectively requires 60 votes, but Republicans hold 53 seats, making bipartisan Democratic support necessary for the CR to pass the Senate.
- Democrats say they will only support short‑term funding if it preserves/enhances Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and reverses recent Medicaid and health‑program cuts; Republicans have pushed back, tying health‑care concessions to immigration limits.
- President Trump and senior aides have publicly and privately signaled a shutdown is likely; some administration sources say Trump 'welcomes' a shutdown as a way to cut programs, and the White House circulated OMB guidance directing agencies to consider reductions‑in‑force (RIF) notices and other contingency personnel actions.
- Estimates and contingency plans show large personnel and service impacts: the CBO estimates roughly 750,000 federal workers could face furloughs; DHS projects about 14,000 of ~271,000 DHS employees would be furloughed; Fox reporting raises the prospect of a >100,000 figure tied to a proposed 'deferred resignation' program and warns of potential legal challenges.
- Operational risks cited across agencies include the possibility FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund (about $10 billion) being strained in an extended shutdown, pauses to new National Flood Insurance policies (which can block mortgages), continuing Medicare/Medicaid payments but likely service delays, and concerns from air‑traffic and border‑patrol unions about pay, equipment and safety.
- Stakeholders and politics: Republican leaders (including Vice President J.D. Vance and Speaker Johnson) largely blamed Democrats for the impasse while the National Border Patrol Council urged Senate Democrats to pass the House CR; public opinion polls (PBS/NPR/Marist) show 38% of adults would mostly blame Republicans for a shutdown, 27% would blame Democrats and 31% blame both, and the same survey put President Trump’s approval at 41% (53% disapprove).
📍 Contextual Background
- Social Security benefits are funded through mandatory spending, meaning the program's funding is provided without an annual expiration and does not require yearly appropriations to continue benefit payments.
- The Social Security Administration's contingency plans provide that in the event of a lapse in appropriations the agency will follow those plans and beneficiaries would continue receiving Social Security, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.
- During a U.S. federal government shutdown, active-duty military personnel and deployed National Guard members must continue to perform their assigned duties but their pay is delayed until the shutdown ends.
- Civilian personnel whose work the Department of Defense designates as 'excepted' continue to work during a government shutdown, while other Department of Defense civilian employees are furloughed.
- The Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 provides that government employees automatically receive back pay after a government shutdown.
- Congress enacted the Pay Our Military Act in 2013 to ensure military pay and allowances continued during a government shutdown.
- The Department of Defense estimated that about 406,000 of its 741,000 civilian employees would be required to work during a government shutdown because their missions are critical and not easily carried out by service members.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Notable & Quotable: FUN With the Shutdown
"The WSJ 'Notable & Quotable' item highlights and implicitly critiques an American Prospect claim that the federal government has effectively been 'shut down for months' because the administration selectively continues favored operations (immigration enforcement, strikes) while blocking activities it opposes, a framing the WSJ presents skeptically amid actual reporting on the looming fiscal shutdown."
📰 Sources (15)
Rep. Suzan DelBene calls on Republicans to "come to the table" with government shutdown approaching
New information:
- Rep. Suzan DelBene publicly urged Republicans to 'come to the table' in a CBS News interview ('The Takeout').
- CBS News published a short video segment conveying the Democratic lawmaker's appeal as the shutdown deadline approaches.
Medicare, FEMA and air traffic control: How a government shutdown could impact public services
New information:
- DHS contingency plan estimates about 14,000 of roughly 271,000 DHS employees would be furloughed in a shutdown.
- FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund is noted at about $10 billion and an extended shutdown could in a worst case exhaust that fund.
- The National Flood Insurance Program would pause new policy issuance, potentially blocking mortgages that require flood insurance.
- Medicare and Medicaid payments would continue but the article warns of likely service delays (for example, mailing of Medicare cards).
- Direct quotes and concerns from National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels and Air Line Pilots Association President Capt. Jason Ambrosi about controller pay and system stability during a shutdown.
Trump says government shutdown is "probably likely"
New information:
- President Donald Trump on camera told reporters in the Oval Office that a government shutdown is 'probably likely'.
- CBS News video documents the president's remark and cites White House reporter Aaron Navarro on the scene.
750K federal workers risk furloughs in government shutdown, CBO estimates
New information:
- The Congressional Budget Office estimates roughly 750,000 federal workers could face furloughs in a government shutdown.
- The Axios piece supplies a concrete headcount from the CBO that was not present in prior coverage of the looming shutdown.
Shutdown fight casts a shadow over jobs as Trump prepares for largest federal resignation in US history
New information:
- Provides administration-level threat to convert furloughs into permanent dismissals or mass resignations, with an explicit figure (>100,000) tied to a 'deferred resignation program'.
- Frames the threat as uncharted and likely to generate immediate legal challenges, adding legal risk context to the shutdown deadline reporting.
Democrats, Republicans trade blame as federal agencies brace for government shutdown
New information:
- CBS included on-camera reporting by Aaron Navarro noting lawmakers trading blame on the Senate floor while trying to avoid a shutdown.
- Kristen Brengel of the National Parks Conservation Association spoke on how a shutdown would specifically impact national parks.
- The segment emphasized that 'thousands of employees' at federal agencies could be affected, underscoring operational impacts to agencies and park services.
Americans are more likely to blame GOP for a shutdown, poll finds
New information:
- PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds 38% of U.S. adults say Republicans would be mostly to blame for a shutdown, 27% blame Democrats and 31% say both are equally to blame.
- Independent voters: 41% say both parties share the blame; 36% of independents blame Republicans vs. 19% who blame Democrats.
- On-the-record commentary from Lee Miringoff and Amy Walter contextualizing the political implications of the poll results.
Border Patrol union warns: 'Life and death' mission at risk in shutdown fight
New information:
- A border‑patrol union (National Border Patrol Council) with roughly 18,000 members publicly urged Senate Democrats to pass the House CR to avert the shutdown.
- Direct quote from NBPC President Paul Perez warning that a funding lapse would threaten vehicles, roads, radios, infrastructure and agent pay.
- Contextual political detail reiterating Democrats' push for healthcare and enhanced ACA subsidies as sticking points and Republicans' rejection of rolling back Medicaid changes.
Poll: Republicans get more of the blame than Democrats for a potential shutdown
New information:
- NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds 38% of respondents would blame Republicans for a shutdown vs. 27% who would blame Democrats, while about 30% say both parties would share the blame
- The same poll records President Trump’s approval at 41% (53% disapprove), the lowest of his second term in this survey
- Demographic breakdown: 87% of Republicans still approve of Trump; independents most often blame both parties; generational splits on whether to compromise or stand on principle are detailed
Government faces midnight shutdown deadline as Senate plans vote
New information:
- The government is set to lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025 unless Congress acts.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would bring up the House-passed continuing resolution (which would fund the government until Nov. 21) for a Senate vote on Tuesday.
- President Trump posted an AI-generated video mocking Schumer and Jeffries; House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly blamed Democratic leaders for the impasse and urged they avert a shutdown.
Government shutdown appears unavoidable after White House meeting fails to produce deal
New information:
- White House meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders failed to produce a deal to avert the shutdown.
- Vice President J.D. Vance led the Republican congressional leadership in addressing the media and reiterated that blame rests with Democrats; he said, "I think we're headed to a shutdown."
- Sen. Chuck Schumer publicly said negotiations had produced proposals but that Republicans/President are the decision‑makers; the report frames the timeline as under 48 hours until a funding lapse.
Trump confident ahead of Monday showdown, says Dems' position makes shutdown likely
New information:
- A source close to President Trump told CBS News the president 'privately welcomes the prospect of a shutdown' because it would let him use executive authority to cut programs and salaries.
- CBS News reports it obtained an OMB memo directing agencies to consider reduction‑in‑force (RIF) notices for programs or projects 'not consistent with the President's priorities.'
- Direct, on‑the‑record quotes from Trump framing Democrats as 'not interested in fraud, waste and abuse' and tying health‑care negotiations to immigration limits.
Transcript: Robert Costa on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 28, 2025
New information:
- President Trump told Robert Costa he believes a shutdown 'looks likely' and quoted him saying, 'I just don't know how we are going to solve this issue.'
- Trump said he will not negotiate extensions of ACA premium‑subsidy provisions if Democrats insist on preserving undocumented migrants' access to U.S. health care—framing the dispute as immigration‑linked to health benefits.
- Costa reports administration sources say President Trump 'actually welcomes' a shutdown in the sense that he believes it will let him wield executive power to cut 'waste, fraud and abuse,' and references an internal memo planning reductions‑in‑force (mass firings) if funding lapses.
- Costa notes internal White House discussions about pursuing prosecutions of several critics and officials, naming figures under discussion (e.g., Adam Schiff, Letitia James, James Comey, Christopher Wray) as part of a broader prosecutorial push.
Trump to Meet With Congressional Leaders, Aides Say, as Shutdown Deadline Looms
New information:
- Confirms a White House meeting set for Monday (the day before the Tuesday funding deadline) with Trump, Schumer, Jeffries, Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. John Thune.
- Emphasizes the Senate math: 60 votes required for most spending measures while Republicans hold 53 seats.
- Reports Democrats' conditions for support — extending Obamacare premium tax credits and reversing this summer’s Medicaid and other health‑program cuts — with a quoted joint statement from Schumer and Jeffries.
- Provides Sen. John Thune's Meet the Press comments offering a seven‑week continuing resolution and his comment 'Keep the government open, and then let’s have a conversation about those premium tax credits.'
- Notes Democrats' anger at an administration threat to fire scores of federal employees during a shutdown (contextual pressure allegation).
Trump to meet with top congressional leaders at White House as government shutdown looms
New information:
- Attendees named: President Donald Trump; Sen. Chuck Schumer (D‑N.Y.); Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D‑N.Y.); Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑La.); Sen. John Thune (R‑S.D.)
- Timing: Meeting set for Monday as the Sept. 30, 2025 federal funding deadline approaches; Senate expected to return Sept. 29 while the House remains out until the deadline
- Political context: The meeting follows a canceled session and competing Democratic criticism that the White House/RNC short‑term extension would include partisan policy riders and end enhanced ACA premium subsidies