Senate returns as Johnson warns shutdown could be longest; refuses talks over ACA subsidies
As the Senate reconvened for another round of procedural votes, House Speaker Mike Johnson warned the shutdown could become one of the longest in U.S. history and said he would not negotiate while Democrats demand an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. Democrats have repeatedly blocked GOP stopgap bills to force action on expiring subsidies that analysts warn could roughly double marketplace premiums and leave millions uninsured, while Republicans accuse Democrats of seeking benefits for undocumented immigrants—a claim health experts say is false—and lawmakers and insurers sound urgent warnings about looming enrollment and military‑pay deadlines.
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đź“Ś Key Facts
- The federal government is in a continuing shutdown that had reached about two weeks (reported as day 13 on Oct. 13, 2025) after the Senate repeatedly failed to pass funding; Republicans hold 53 seats and need 60 votes to advance a clean continuing resolution, and the Senate has rejected the House-passed stopgap roughly seven to eight times.
- The immediate standoff centers on Democrats blocking the House short-term continuing resolution because it does not extend enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits; Democrats insist on an extension before reopening the government while Republicans (and Speaker Mike Johnson) say talks should occur only after the government reopens.
- Senate procedural dynamics have shown only three Senate Democrats consistently breaking with their party on GOP bills, multiple failed test votes, no movement toward changing filibuster rules ('nuclear option'), and periodic scheduling pauses (Senate left for Columbus Day) that have complicated late votes and negotiations.
- Health stakes driving the dispute: about 24 million people are enrolled in ACA marketplaces; KFF estimates average enrollee premiums could rise roughly 114% if enhanced subsidies expire, CBO estimates the extension would cost about $350 billion over 10 years and that about 4 million people could become uninsured, and insurers must finalize premiums in October with open enrollment beginning Nov. 1, creating urgent timing pressure.
- Military pay and other operational deadlines are acute pressure points: payroll processing and the next military payday (Oct. 15) and Senate/staff pay dates (Oct. 20) risk missed paychecks; Speaker Johnson initially rejected a standalone House vote to guarantee pay, but the White House directed the Defense Department to use identified funds to ensure troops (and Coast Guard personnel) are paid, reducing one immediate pressure point.
- Shutdown impacts reported on the ground include federal-worker furloughs and first-week missed pay for some employees, Smithsonian and national monument closures and airport/aviation disruptions, and state-by-state notices showing steep potential premium increases for exchange enrollees if subsidies lapse.
- Political and policy maneuvers: Democrats held in-person caucus meetings and are running campaign ads to pressure Republicans; GOP messaging accuses Democrats of expanding immigrant benefits (a claim disputed by experts and Democrats who note undocumented immigrants are ineligible for federal ACA/Medicaid subsidies); the White House has used pressure tactics including a prior $4.9 billion 'pocket rescission' in foreign aid.
- There have been quiet, informal bipartisan talks and concrete GOP proposals (e.g., proposals from Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Mike Rounds, Susan Collins) to extend subsidies with reforms, and some Senate leaders say a vote to extend premium subsidies is possible — but leaders on both sides describe formal negotiations as at an impasse while timing deadlines for premiums and pay loom.
đź“š Contextual Background
- A continuing resolution (CR) is a short-term funding measure used to keep the federal government open temporarily while Congress completes the appropriations process.
- Furloughed federal employees typically return to work and receive back pay once Congress resolves a government shutdown.
đź“Š Analysis & Commentary (3)
Government shutdown is Democrats' political weapon against American families
"A Republican opinion piece argues that House Democrats are weaponizing a government shutdown for progressive policy goals instead of supporting a GOP-passed clean continuing resolution to keep essential services open, urging Democrats to vote to avert the lapse."
The 3 contradictions driving the shutdown
"A political‑economy deep dive arguing the current shutdown is produced by three underlying contradictions — between policy goals and political incentives, between chamber rules and governance needs, and between public messaging and accountability — rather than by a single bill, and that both parties’ incentives make compromise unlikely unless the structural tensions are addressed."
Trump’s Problem Is a Lack of Focus
"Karl Rove’s short opinion criticizes the Trump White House’s handling of the federal shutdown—highlighting contradictory messaging (Trump claiming talks while aides/Schumer deny them) and arguing the core problem is the president’s lack of focus and management."
đź“° Sources (41)
WATCH LIVE: Senate gavels in as Johnson warns this shutdown could be longest in U.S. history
New information:
- Speaker Mike Johnson warned the shutdown could become the longest in U.S. history and said he 'won’t negotiate' until Democrats pause their health‑care demands.
- The Senate is scheduled to gavel in at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
- Johnson publicly thanked President Trump for ensuring military pay this week; a senior official confirmed Coast Guard personnel will also be paid.
- Johnson said he was unaware of the details of the administration’s mass federal layoffs amid the shutdown.
- AP/PBS recap immediate impacts: Smithsonian closures and airport disruptions; reiterates Nov. 1 open‑enrollment deadline and KFF estimate that costs would roughly double if ACA subsidies lapse.
Senate plans 8th vote to reopen government as shutdown drags on
New information:
- Senate will hold an eighth procedural vote Tuesday evening on the House-passed CR to fund the government to Nov. 21.
- With 53 Republicans, five additional Democratic votes are still needed to reach 60; Sen. Rand Paul remains opposed.
- Only three Democrats have crossed the aisle on prior votes (one initially, two more on Sept. 30).
- House Democrats have been called back for a Tuesday evening caucus meeting by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries while the House remains out of session.
Speaker says U.S. ‘barreling toward’ prolonged shutdown as ripple effects grow
New information:
- House Speaker Mike Johnson warned the U.S. is “barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns” in history.
- It is the 13th day of the shutdown, and federal workers are now in their first week without a paycheck.
Trump says U.S. troops will be paid despite government shutdown
New information:
- President Trump directed DoD to use "all available funds" so U.S. troops are paid on Oct. 15 despite the shutdown.
- The White House says it has "identified funds" for troop pay; CBO has said mandatory funding from the 2025 reconciliation act could legally be used.
- Action likely removes a key pressure point (missed military pay) that could have forced faster congressional action to end the shutdown.
Military veterans in Congress clash over government shutdown as troops face missed paychecks
New information:
- House GOP military veterans sent a Saturday letter to Senate Democratic veterans urging them to back the House-passed Sept. 19 continuing resolution to avoid interrupting troop pay.
- The letter asserts the CR has no cuts, no policy riders, and would keep the government open while ensuring uninterrupted military pay.
- Fox reports the Senate has rejected the House CR seven times and would need to pass it by Monday, Oct. 13, for pay to go out on Oct. 15; Monday’s federal holiday likely pushes any Senate vote to Tuesday.
Government shutdown live updates as military poised to miss first paychecks next week
New information:
- Speaker Mike Johnson told CBS there is "no scenario" right now in which the House returns before the Senate passes the GOP seven‑week stopgap.
- House has been kept out of session since Sept. 19, with votes canceled on Sept. 29–30 and again on Oct. 7; next planned return Oct. 14.
- Pressure is mounting for a standalone military pay bill: Rep. Jennifer Kiggans’ measure to pay troops, DoD civilians and contractors during the lapse has roughly 150 co‑sponsors.
- Rep. Elise Stefanik publicly broke with GOP leadership and demanded a floor vote on the Kiggans bill.
- CBS reiterates that the next military payday is Oct. 15 and is now highly likely to be missed if no deal; air‑traffic controller shortages have produced delays, with controllers working without pay but expected to receive back pay after reopening.
WATCH LIVE: Johnson, House GOP leadership hold news briefing on shutdown as deadlock continues
New information:
- Quiet Senate talks include concrete GOP proposals: Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s idea to keep ACA subsidies for two years with changes; a similar approach from Sen. Mike Rounds; and a six-point plan from Sen. Susan Collins shared with leadership.
- Sen. Markwayne Mullin said, "We’re making progress," signaling movement in negotiations even as Democrats continue to block the House-passed bill.
Senate leaves Washington as government shutdown nears 3rd week, military pay at risk
New information:
- Senate will leave town Friday and return Tuesday after Columbus Day, foregoing further CR votes this week.
- Senate advanced the $925 billion 2026 NDAA in late‑night votes before adjourning.
- Military pay is now at heightened risk because payroll must be locked on Monday and the Senate will not be in session.
- Only three Democratic‑caucus senators have consistently broken with their party on the GOP CR so far.
- Republicans are pushing a short‑term CR to Nov. 21; Democrats say no reopening without a deal on enhanced ACA premium tax credits.
- Quotes from Sens. Susan Collins, Markwayne Mullin and Shelley Moore Capito outlining positions and consequences.
GOP senators back Russ Vought's hardball shutdown strategy as standoff intensifies
New information:
- Reports that Senate GOP leaders are not pursuing a 'nuclear option' on the filibuster amid the standoff.
- Quotes Thune and others framing OMB actions as part of broader pressure while talks continue.
Thune says vote on health care subsidies possible, but only after government reopens
New information:
- John Thune says a Senate vote to extend ACA premium subsidies is possible, but only after the government reopens.
- Frames the offer as an 'off-ramp' to Democrats while confirming formal negotiations are currently at a standstill on day nine of the shutdown.
Senate Democrats block GOP plan again to reopen government as military pay deadline looms
New information:
- Senate Democrats blocked Republicans’ plan for a seventh time as the shutdown reached day nine.
- Military payroll processing deadline is Oct. 13, after which service members could miss their first paycheck; Senate staff pay date is Oct. 20.
- Senate recess scheduled for next week is expected to be canceled, per Sen. John Thune.
- Democrats insist on addressing expiring ACA premium tax credits before reopening; Republicans say talks happen only after reopening and want reforms to the program.
- Bipartisan conversations led by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Mike Rounds remain informal and have not become formal negotiations.
WATCH LIVE: Senate convenes as federal government shutdown reaches day 9
New information:
- Shutdown has reached day 9 with the Senate convening amid a continued stalemate.
- Speaker Mike Johnson, on C‑SPAN, said he typically votes with President Trump and claimed Trump has called for the government to be open “since before this began.”
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune said there is interest on both sides in a compromise to extend some ACA subsidies but argued Democrats cannot 'take the federal government hostage.'
- Sen. Richard Blumenthal said Democrats need safeguards beyond verbal commitments, citing distrust of President Trump.
- Article highlights a White House budget office 'pocket rescission' that cut $4.9 billion in foreign aid in August, drawing criticism from Sen. Thom Tillis and concerns about executive overreach.
Senate GOP resists 'nuclear option' as Dem shutdown standoff deepens
New information:
- Senate Republicans say they are not considering the 'nuclear option' to change filibuster rules to pass a continuing resolution.
- Direct quotes from GOP senators (Roger Marshall, Eric Schmitt, Cynthia Lummis) rejecting rule changes despite mounting frustration.
- Context that Republicans already used a rules change earlier this year for nominees but view altering the filibuster for legislation as off-limits.
- Reference to prior 2022 Democratic attempt to modify the filibuster blocked by then‑Sens. Manchin and Sinema, underscoring current procedural limits.
Senate prepares to vote again on votes to fund government
New information:
- The Senate is set to hold a seventh round of procedural votes midday Thursday on dueling funding measures.
- Lawmakers cite an Oct. 15 troop pay deadline as increasing pressure to resolve the standoff.
- Republicans have not gained additional Democratic support since Sept. 30; they need 60 votes to advance a bill.
Bipartisan negotiations are the 'obvious way out' of the shutdown, says Sen. Dick Durbin
New information:
- Shutdown is in its ninth day as of Oct. 9.
- Senate rejected competing funding bills again in a 54–45 vote (described as the seventh time).
- Sen. Dick Durbin warns ACA marketplace premiums could double without an extension and cites Oct. 27 as Illinois’ premium announcement date.
- Durbin says about 24 million Americans rely on ACA marketplaces and argues House recess is impeding internal GOP negotiations.
Bipartisan negotiations are the 'obvious way out' of the shutdown, says Sen. Dick Durbin
New information:
- NPR reports the latest Senate funding vote failed 54–45 on Oct. 9, 2025 (the seventh attempt).
- Sen. Dick Durbin says Illinois insurers will announce new hospitalization premiums on Oct. 27 and predicts premiums will "double" without extending ACA credits.
- Durbin alleges Speaker Mike Johnson is keeping the House in recess to prevent GOP defections on a shutdown/ACA deal.
- Article reiterates that about 24 million Americans rely on ACA marketplaces for coverage.
Senate Democrats defy White House warnings, again block GOP bid to reopen government
New information:
- Senate Democrats blocked Republicans’ sixth bid to pass a clean continuing resolution on Oct. 8, 2025, so the government remained shut.
- The article quotes Sen. Markwayne Mullin and Sen. John Thune describing GOP strategy and includes direct framing from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer linking Democratic resistance to protection of expiring ACA premium tax credits.
- The piece notes increased White House pressure and mentions the administration weighing withholding back pay for furloughed workers as part of that pressure campaign.
Johnson rejects push for military pay fix as shutdown fight intensifies
New information:
- House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly ruled out bringing the House back for a standalone vote to guarantee on‑time military pay during the shutdown.
- Johnson reiterated the House had already passed a continuing resolution and put the onus on the Senate to act; he framed Democrats' calls for another vote as political theater.
- Story emphasizes the operational timing risk: Oct. 15 is the next military payday and would be the first paycheck U.S. troops miss if the shutdown continues.
Reporter's Notebook: Senate revotes today on ending government shutdown
New information:
- Fox reports the sixth set of Senate 'test' votes is scheduled for late morning/midday today.
- Speaker Mike Johnson indicated openness to pass a special bill to pay service members and air‑traffic controllers, but that would require the House to return to session.
- The article specifies Oct. 13 as the deadline to pay the military and air‑traffic controllers.
- A senior House GOP leadership source told Fox they doubt the House will return before the shutdown ends.
- Notes mild, informal bipartisan talks but Senator Tim Kaine described them as at an impasse; also highlights rising worries about aviation‑sector absences and farm‑payment timing.
Senate prepares to vote again on Day 8 of government shutdown
New information:
- Senate scheduled a sixth set of procedural votes midday Wednesday after five prior attempts fell short of the 60‑vote threshold.
- Republicans continue to press a House‑passed stopgap to fund government until Nov. 21 while Democrats push an alternative that would extend ACA premium tax credits; Republicans hold 53 seats and need Democratic support.
- Report details recent vote dynamics (one to three Democrats crossed in earlier votes) and that Republicans have been unable to peel off more Democratic support in the latest attempts.
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