Shutdown Halts BLS Data: Jobs Report Delayed; CPI/SS COLA at Risk
Congress’ failure to pass a funding agreement has triggered a federal shutdown that has paused the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report and could delay the Oct. 15 CPI release—used to calculate next year’s Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment—if the lapse continues. The shutdown has also suspended agency functions from CDC public communications to Superfund work and veterans assistance, prompted administration threats of mass firings that unions have sued over, raised Hatch Act ethics concerns about White House messaging, and intensified political pressure including an NRCC ad campaign.
Government
Government/Policy
Politics
Economy
Public Safety
🔍 Key Facts
- Congress failed to pass funding — two competing Senate votes each fell short — triggering a government shutdown after House and Senate negotiators could not reach agreement (Democrats rejected a short‑term CR because Republicans would not extend ACA premium subsidies).
- OMB directed agencies to 'execute their plans for an orderly shutdown,' naming Russell Vought as the official issuing that instruction.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the usual September jobs report on the first Friday because of the shutdown; if the lapse lasts more than a few days the Oct. 15 Consumer Price Index release could also be delayed — and the September CPI is used to calculate the Social Security COLA, so timing/visibility of next year’s adjustment is at risk.
- BLS has previously scaled back price‑checking work amid staffing cuts and a similar report delay occurred during the 2013 shutdown, increasing the risk of disrupted economic data this month.
- Operational impacts are wide: the CDC has halted public health communications, Superfund cleanup work is stalled, veterans transition assistance is paused, Justice Department civil litigation is halted, new education grants are suspended, and roughly 300,000 federal employees have left since the start of the year, exacerbating gaps as remaining staff cover multiple roles.
- President Trump publicly threatened mass firings and program eliminations during the impasse; two federal‑employee unions have sued saying those threats are unlawful and politically coercive, and watchdogs flagged White House use of government websites and agency emails blaming Democrats as raising possible Hatch Act violations.
- The House GOP campaign arm (NRCC) launched a targeted ad campaign in 42 battleground districts (25 represented by Democrats, 17 by Republicans) with a reported four‑figure buy, blaming Democrats for the shutdown to pressure them to accept the GOP plan.
- A 2019 law requires back pay for furloughed federal employees after a shutdown ends, but many workers will nonetheless miss paychecks while the government is closed.
📍 Contextual Background
- The Social Security Administration's contingency plans provide that in the event of a lapse in appropriations the agency will follow those plans and beneficiaries would continue receiving Social Security, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments.
- A Social Security Administration contingency plan published on Sept. 24 indicated that about 45,000 SSA employees (roughly 90% of the agency's workforce) would remain on the job during a government shutdown, while roughly 6,200 employees would be furloughed.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Playbook: Shutdown, Day 1
"A Playbook take on Day 1 of the federal shutdown that frames the lapse as a high‑stakes, self‑inflicted political gamble—driven by the ACA subsidy fight and failed negotiations—while analyzing immediate operational directives, likely political blame, and the economic/optics fallout."
📰 Sources (6)
What happens now that the government has shut down. And, a pricing deal with Pfizer
New information:
- NPR reports that two federal‑employee unions have filed a lawsuit arguing the administration's public threats to fire workers during the shutdown are unlawful and aimed at pressuring Democrats.
- NPR notes the White House used government websites and agency‑wide emails to blame Democrats for the shutdown—an action ethics experts say could violate the Hatch Act.
- NPR highlights that while a 2019 law requires back pay after a shutdown ends, many federal workers will nonetheless miss paychecks during the current lapse and that unions have sued in response to administration threats.
Here’s the latest.
New information:
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has halted public communications about health-related information.
- The official monthly jobs report scheduled for Friday has been paused because of the shutdown.
- President Trump publicly threatened during the impasse that his administration 'may do a lot' of firings as a consequence of the standoff.
- The article notes roughly 300,000 federal employees have left since the start of the year, exacerbating operational gaps (employees covering multiple roles).
- Operational impacts cited include stalled Superfund cleanup work, paused veterans transition assistance, halted Justice Department civil litigation and suspension of new education grants.
Government shutdown could delay key economic reports at an especially sensitive time
New information:
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the September jobs report this week (the usual first‑Friday release), leaving policymakers and markets without the latest hiring data.
- If the shutdown continues for more than a few days, the Consumer Price Index release scheduled for Oct. 15, 2025 could also be delayed.
- The September CPI reading is used in the Social Security COLA calculation, so delays could affect timing/visibility of next year’s cost‑of‑living adjustment.
- NPR notes the BLS has previously scaled back monthly price checks due to staffing cuts and recalls a similar report delay during the 2013 shutdown.
Government shutdown begins as House GOP campaign arm heaps pressure on Dems
New information:
- NRCC has launched a targeted ad campaign running in 42 battleground districts to pressure Democrats to accept the GOP plan.
- Breakdown of placements: 25 of the targeted districts are represented by Democrats and 17 are Republican-held.
- Ad buy described as costing a 'four-figure' amount; the article quotes NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella and reproduces the ad's messaging blaming Democrats for the shutdown.
Government shuts down after Congress fails to reach a funding agreement
New information:
- Direct OMB instruction named: Russell Vought told agencies to 'execute their plans for an orderly shutdown.'
- Specific Senate breakdown: two dueling funding votes failed, each needing 60 votes; Democrats refused to back the House short-term CR because Republicans would not extend ACA premium subsidies.
- Quote from President Trump threatening possible mass firings and program eliminations during the shutdown ('We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible...').