NABE lifts 2025 growth, trims jobs outlook
The National Association for Business Economics now projects U.S. GDP to grow 1.8% in 2025 (up from 1.3% in June) and 1.7% in 2026, while forecasting softer hiring, slightly higher unemployment, and inflation easing toward 2.5% by end‑2026. The late‑September survey of 40 economists also anticipates one more 25 bp Fed rate cut this year and a total 75 bp in 2026, with tariffs seen adding to prices but less than previously expected.
Economy
Finance
📌 Key Facts
- 2025 GDP forecast raised to 1.8% (from 1.3%); 2026 to 1.7% (from 1.4%).
- Average payroll gains seen at 60,000/month for remainder of 2025; unemployment projected at 4.5% in 2026.
- PCE inflation expected at 3% for rest of 2025, cooling to 2.5% by end‑2026.
- NABE expects an additional 25 bp Fed cut in 2025 and 75 bp total in 2026.
- Recession odds put between 20% and <40% over the next 12 months.